Another installment in a series looking at the chances of teams in the upcoming men's MAAC tournament.
Up now, Niagara
No. 6 NIAGARA (9-9 in MAAC play, 17-14 overall)
RPI: 145
SEASON ANALYSIS: It had four returning starters for this season, but the loss was a big one in a literal sense, 6-9 Benson Egemoyne. Between the absence of a true post player and some nagging injuries to its two top players, forward Bilal Benn and guard Tyrone Lewis, who each missed several games., things didn't go as expected here. The team's record might be disappointing to program followers ... better things were expected ... but the injuries set things back for a good portion of the season.
Things seemed to be coming together at the end of the season when Niagara went on a 6-1 run that included an impressive 87-74 victory over Siena on Feb. 12, the only blemish on the Saints' league record this season. And, then, Niagara went on the road the last weekend of the season and barely edged Manhattan, 74-72, on Friday; and lsot at Fairfield, 80-74, on Sunday.
WHY NIAGARA CAN WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: If it needs to beat Siena at some point (they could meet in the championship game)... well, it's the only conference team that has done it this season, and it did so in impressive fashion. Still, the night it beat Siena was a perfect storm, of sorts. The game was nationally televised, drew a wildly enthusiastic capacity to the Taps Gallagher Center and gave the Purple Eagles an opportunity to make a statement by ending what was then a 15-game Siena winning streak. Niagara played with a level of intensity one wonders it can match for three straight tournament games. But, it could.
Benn and Lewis are explosive offensive players, each capable of taking over games. Point guard Anthony Nelson is a terrific and underrated floor general. There is still plenty of fire power in place. If all the talented pieces come together Niagara can give anyone problems. Just ask Siena.
WHY NIAGARA WON'T WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: The lack of a true inside player will likely cause Niagara troubles against bigger teams (Siena) and, potentially, both Iona in the quarterfinals and, probably, Fairfield in the semifinals if both teams get there. The Purple Eagles, in fact, need to do something they haven't done yet this year just to get to the semifinals ... beat Iona. Also, Niagara also whipped Siena, 100-85, in a late regular-season game last year and, then, couldn't repeat that feat in the 2009 tournament's championship game. Siena, if anything, is better than a year ago and Niagara isn't as good.
PREDICTION: Niagara finds a way to beat Iona in the quarterfinals, but can't get past Fairfield in the semifinal round.
WHATS NEXT: Benn, Lewis, guard Rob Garrison and forward Demetrius Williamson, all significant contributors, are all gone after this season. It will be a new era with a new cast for Niagara next season. But, don't count on a big dropoff. Joe Mihalich is one of the conference's better coaches and has only had one sub-.500 record in 12 seasons at the school.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Former Siena Coach Deane Out At Wagner
Time for a brief break from looking at the men's teams prior to the MAAC tournament to reflect a little on the firing of former Siena coach Mike Deane at Wagner.
Deane coached there for seven years and never got the Seahawks to the NCAA tournament. His inexperienced team finished 5-26 overall this season and 3-15 in its league. So, the move is understandable.
Your blogger, though, knows Deane to be a terrific coach who was in a difficult situation. Wagner, located in the shadows of dozens of larger and more-prestigious basketball programs, isn't the easiest place to attract quality recruits.
Deane is 58 years old and at that age it's difficult to catch on as a head coach again after being fired. But, any mid-major program could do a lot worse than bringing in Deane.
Deane coached eight seasons at Siena (1986-97 through 1993-94) and still holds the program's record for career coaching victories (166-77) since its move to the Division I level in 1976.
Deane came to Siena after several seasons as an asisstant coach at Michigan State and was brought in to elevate a fledgling program that was starting to have some success but had yet to move beyond the bounds of having success at a league level.
Deane, though, quickly changed that primarily with the successful recruitment of the two best point guards to ever play for Siena, first Marc Brown and, then, Doremus Bennerman.
He brought in Brown in 1987 and Brown's first season there resulted in Siena winning a regular-season title in its former league, the North Atlantic Conference (which later became America East), and a berth in the NIT, the program's first national post-season tournament on the Division I level.
The following year the Saints won the NAC again and went to their first NCAA tournament. Once there they beat 13th-ranked Stanford in the first round, still Siena's best-ever victory. Your blogger contends that the 1988-89 team that beat Stanford remains the best team to ever play at the Loudonville school
Siena joined the MAAC after that season but Deane's teams never got to the NCAA's again. They did, though, play in the NIT in 1991 and 1994 (advancing to the semifinal round that season), when the NIT was still a relatively big deal for MAAC teams.
Deane might never have left Siena were it not for the school's decision to be tight financially concerning his contract. When Marquette offered Deane $300,000 to move, Deane moved on.
He took both Marquette and, then, Lamar to NCAA tournaments in subsequent years.
No matter where Deane coached, he did things the right way. He refused to recruit academic risks or bring in players with behavioral issues. Deane wanted his athletes to be good representatives of the schools at which he coached.
During Deane's playing career he was on a Division III national championship team at Potsdam and was drafted by the NBA, but was one of the last cuts by the Milwaukee Bucks and went into coaching.
Even as a coach, though, he continued to be an active player earning a spot on Empire State Games teams in the early 1980s when he was in his late 20's.
At Siena, in his mid-30's, he regularly got on the court to scrimmage with his team and his players struggled to deal with his clever arsenal of point guard moves.
Deane certainly was an important cog in the progression of Siena's program to its current level.
His 1993-94 team played two NIT games at Albany's Times Union Center to capacity crowds, bringing about one of Deane's more-memorable lines: "Jim Coyne built it," said Deane, referring to the Albany County's Executive of that era directly responsible for the arena's construction ... "and, Mike Deane filled it."
Deane's high passion for basketball and his competitive spirit remains strong, by all accounts.
He is a good man and a good coach. This blogger hopes Deane will have a place at which to coach next season.
Deane coached there for seven years and never got the Seahawks to the NCAA tournament. His inexperienced team finished 5-26 overall this season and 3-15 in its league. So, the move is understandable.
Your blogger, though, knows Deane to be a terrific coach who was in a difficult situation. Wagner, located in the shadows of dozens of larger and more-prestigious basketball programs, isn't the easiest place to attract quality recruits.
Deane is 58 years old and at that age it's difficult to catch on as a head coach again after being fired. But, any mid-major program could do a lot worse than bringing in Deane.
Deane coached eight seasons at Siena (1986-97 through 1993-94) and still holds the program's record for career coaching victories (166-77) since its move to the Division I level in 1976.
Deane came to Siena after several seasons as an asisstant coach at Michigan State and was brought in to elevate a fledgling program that was starting to have some success but had yet to move beyond the bounds of having success at a league level.
Deane, though, quickly changed that primarily with the successful recruitment of the two best point guards to ever play for Siena, first Marc Brown and, then, Doremus Bennerman.
He brought in Brown in 1987 and Brown's first season there resulted in Siena winning a regular-season title in its former league, the North Atlantic Conference (which later became America East), and a berth in the NIT, the program's first national post-season tournament on the Division I level.
The following year the Saints won the NAC again and went to their first NCAA tournament. Once there they beat 13th-ranked Stanford in the first round, still Siena's best-ever victory. Your blogger contends that the 1988-89 team that beat Stanford remains the best team to ever play at the Loudonville school
Siena joined the MAAC after that season but Deane's teams never got to the NCAA's again. They did, though, play in the NIT in 1991 and 1994 (advancing to the semifinal round that season), when the NIT was still a relatively big deal for MAAC teams.
Deane might never have left Siena were it not for the school's decision to be tight financially concerning his contract. When Marquette offered Deane $300,000 to move, Deane moved on.
He took both Marquette and, then, Lamar to NCAA tournaments in subsequent years.
No matter where Deane coached, he did things the right way. He refused to recruit academic risks or bring in players with behavioral issues. Deane wanted his athletes to be good representatives of the schools at which he coached.
During Deane's playing career he was on a Division III national championship team at Potsdam and was drafted by the NBA, but was one of the last cuts by the Milwaukee Bucks and went into coaching.
Even as a coach, though, he continued to be an active player earning a spot on Empire State Games teams in the early 1980s when he was in his late 20's.
At Siena, in his mid-30's, he regularly got on the court to scrimmage with his team and his players struggled to deal with his clever arsenal of point guard moves.
Deane certainly was an important cog in the progression of Siena's program to its current level.
His 1993-94 team played two NIT games at Albany's Times Union Center to capacity crowds, bringing about one of Deane's more-memorable lines: "Jim Coyne built it," said Deane, referring to the Albany County's Executive of that era directly responsible for the arena's construction ... "and, Mike Deane filled it."
Deane's high passion for basketball and his competitive spirit remains strong, by all accounts.
He is a good man and a good coach. This blogger hopes Deane will have a place at which to coach next season.
No. 5 Rider Needs To Find Consistency
Another installment in a series looking at the chances of teams in the upcoming men's MAAC tournament.
Up now, Rider.
No. 3 Rider (9-9 in MAAC play, 16-15 overall).
RPI: 157
SEASON ANALYSIS: This was the team, with four returning starters and including the preseason choice for Player of the Year, that was supposed to challenge Siena. Head coach Tommy Dempsey told us that, casting the lone vote (for his own team) in the preseason coaches' poll for a team other than Siena to win this year's regular-season crown. Then, the Broncs beat 18th ranked Mississippi State, 88-74, in its opener. Maybe Dempsey was right about his team.
Somehow, though, something happened on the way to all that glory. Inconsistent play, poor offensive chemistry, or whatever ... it all added up to Rider having arguably the most-disappointing season of anyone in the conference. It didn't help that its top player, 6-6 guard Ryan Thompson, had similar inconsistencies. He did recover enough to be voted a first-team all-star, but that came mostly on the strength of a late-season seven-game stretch in which he averaged 25 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists and hit .541 percent of his field goals. In his other 24 games he averaged 15.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists and had a .379 shooting percentage.
All those woes required the Broncs to win their final regular-season contest, an 86-70 victory over Canisius, to avoid the play-in round of the MAAC tournament.
HOW RIDER CAN WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: Thompson would need to play three games like those in that spectacular late-season seven-game stretch he had. And, even that might not be enough, but it would help. As would some spectacular outside shooting from guard Justin Robinson, who is capable of that; and significantly strong inside play by 6-7 forwards Mike Ringold and Novar Gadson.
WHY RIDER WON'T WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: The proverbial "light bulb" doesn't suddenly go on once the calendar turns to March. Rider is likely to be now exactly what it was for most of the year ... an inconsistent group. It doesn't have a legitimate point guard, Ringold doesn't provide much on offense and the Broncs would have to get past a likely semifinal meeting with Siena, that dismantled Rider by scores of 80-54 and 84-62 in the two regular-season meetings.
PREDICTION: Your blogger doesn't have a lot of faith in Rider, and believes it will get beat by Saint Peter's in the quarterfinal round.
WHAT'S AHEAD: Surely, a disappointing look back. Thompson definitely has a pro career ahead of him, but whether that involves joining his 6-foot-11 brother Jason Thompson in the NBA is debatable. Thompson, though, is the only significant loss off this year's team. So, the Broncs are likely to be competitive next season, but not likely to be among the elite teams in the MAAC.
Up now, Rider.
No. 3 Rider (9-9 in MAAC play, 16-15 overall).
RPI: 157
SEASON ANALYSIS: This was the team, with four returning starters and including the preseason choice for Player of the Year, that was supposed to challenge Siena. Head coach Tommy Dempsey told us that, casting the lone vote (for his own team) in the preseason coaches' poll for a team other than Siena to win this year's regular-season crown. Then, the Broncs beat 18th ranked Mississippi State, 88-74, in its opener. Maybe Dempsey was right about his team.
Somehow, though, something happened on the way to all that glory. Inconsistent play, poor offensive chemistry, or whatever ... it all added up to Rider having arguably the most-disappointing season of anyone in the conference. It didn't help that its top player, 6-6 guard Ryan Thompson, had similar inconsistencies. He did recover enough to be voted a first-team all-star, but that came mostly on the strength of a late-season seven-game stretch in which he averaged 25 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists and hit .541 percent of his field goals. In his other 24 games he averaged 15.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists and had a .379 shooting percentage.
All those woes required the Broncs to win their final regular-season contest, an 86-70 victory over Canisius, to avoid the play-in round of the MAAC tournament.
HOW RIDER CAN WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: Thompson would need to play three games like those in that spectacular late-season seven-game stretch he had. And, even that might not be enough, but it would help. As would some spectacular outside shooting from guard Justin Robinson, who is capable of that; and significantly strong inside play by 6-7 forwards Mike Ringold and Novar Gadson.
WHY RIDER WON'T WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: The proverbial "light bulb" doesn't suddenly go on once the calendar turns to March. Rider is likely to be now exactly what it was for most of the year ... an inconsistent group. It doesn't have a legitimate point guard, Ringold doesn't provide much on offense and the Broncs would have to get past a likely semifinal meeting with Siena, that dismantled Rider by scores of 80-54 and 84-62 in the two regular-season meetings.
PREDICTION: Your blogger doesn't have a lot of faith in Rider, and believes it will get beat by Saint Peter's in the quarterfinal round.
WHAT'S AHEAD: Surely, a disappointing look back. Thompson definitely has a pro career ahead of him, but whether that involves joining his 6-foot-11 brother Jason Thompson in the NBA is debatable. Thompson, though, is the only significant loss off this year's team. So, the Broncs are likely to be competitive next season, but not likely to be among the elite teams in the MAAC.
Monday, March 1, 2010
No. 4 St. Peter's Needs Increased Scoring
Another installment in a series looking at the chances of teams in the upcoming men's MAAC tournament.
Up now, Saint Peter's.
No. 4 seed Saint Peter's (11-7 in MAAC play, 16-13 overall).
RPI: 170.
SEASON ANALYSIS: The Peacocks still have a youthful group, staring three juniors and two freshmen in recent games, and there isn't a single senior on the roster. Wesley Jenkins and Nick Leon comprise one of the better backcourts in the conference, Ryan Bacon is one of the more-athletic inside players and Darius Conley is a bruising post presence. A year ago Saint Peter's won 11 games overall. This year it has 11 victories in conference play alone. If it gets one victory in the tournament, it would finish with the program's most victories in a season since 2005-06.
Coach John Dunne has done a terrific job bringing back a program that had very little talent in place after the graduation of Keydren Clark after the 2005-06 season. This year's team pretty much won the games it was expected to, finishing 10-2 against the bottom six finishers in the MAAC but only 5-1 vs. the top three squards (Siena, Fairfield, Iona).
HOW SAINT PETER'S CAN WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: Better offensive chemistry, particularly if it gets to the semifinal round where it would match up with Siena. The Peacocks had a home-game opportunity to knock off the Saints (playing without Edwin Ubiles that night), but only managed 58 points while struggling to get any kind of good look at the basket all night. Clearly, though, Jenkens and Leon are gifted offensive players, but Bacon needs to have some big games in this event for Saint Peter's to continue to advance.
WHY SAINT PETER'S WON'T WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: Not enough offensive consistency. Loyola coach Jimmy Patsos calls the MAAC "a scoring league," and that's true. Teams that struggle to score won't do well in this setting, and Saint Peter's struggles to score on too many nights.
PREDICTION: The quarterfinal matchup with Rider is one of the best ones of the tournament., The pick here is that the Peacocks sneak past the season-long underachieving Broncs before losing a competitive semifinal against Siena.
WHAT'S NEXT? The Peacocks are finished for the season when they lose in this tournament, but the future is indeed bright. Every player on the roster returns, theoretically better. Playing together over an extended period never hurts. The Peacocks might have struggled a little this season with fitting in some new parts. But, there will be no lack of familiarity a year from now and Saint Peter's will be among the top teams in the league and a legitimate championship contender next season.
Up now, Saint Peter's.
No. 4 seed Saint Peter's (11-7 in MAAC play, 16-13 overall).
RPI: 170.
SEASON ANALYSIS: The Peacocks still have a youthful group, staring three juniors and two freshmen in recent games, and there isn't a single senior on the roster. Wesley Jenkins and Nick Leon comprise one of the better backcourts in the conference, Ryan Bacon is one of the more-athletic inside players and Darius Conley is a bruising post presence. A year ago Saint Peter's won 11 games overall. This year it has 11 victories in conference play alone. If it gets one victory in the tournament, it would finish with the program's most victories in a season since 2005-06.
Coach John Dunne has done a terrific job bringing back a program that had very little talent in place after the graduation of Keydren Clark after the 2005-06 season. This year's team pretty much won the games it was expected to, finishing 10-2 against the bottom six finishers in the MAAC but only 5-1 vs. the top three squards (Siena, Fairfield, Iona).
HOW SAINT PETER'S CAN WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: Better offensive chemistry, particularly if it gets to the semifinal round where it would match up with Siena. The Peacocks had a home-game opportunity to knock off the Saints (playing without Edwin Ubiles that night), but only managed 58 points while struggling to get any kind of good look at the basket all night. Clearly, though, Jenkens and Leon are gifted offensive players, but Bacon needs to have some big games in this event for Saint Peter's to continue to advance.
WHY SAINT PETER'S WON'T WIN THE MAAC TOURNAMENT: Not enough offensive consistency. Loyola coach Jimmy Patsos calls the MAAC "a scoring league," and that's true. Teams that struggle to score won't do well in this setting, and Saint Peter's struggles to score on too many nights.
PREDICTION: The quarterfinal matchup with Rider is one of the best ones of the tournament., The pick here is that the Peacocks sneak past the season-long underachieving Broncs before losing a competitive semifinal against Siena.
WHAT'S NEXT? The Peacocks are finished for the season when they lose in this tournament, but the future is indeed bright. Every player on the roster returns, theoretically better. Playing together over an extended period never hurts. The Peacocks might have struggled a little this season with fitting in some new parts. But, there will be no lack of familiarity a year from now and Saint Peter's will be among the top teams in the league and a legitimate championship contender next season.
No.3 Seed Iona Seeking Strong Finish
Another installment in the series looking at team's prospects for the men's MAAC tournament.
Up now, Iona.
No. 3 seed Iona (12-6 in MAAC play, 21-9 overall)
RPI (82)
SEASON ANALYSIS: Your blogger, as far back as August, picked Iona to finish sixth in this years standings and that prediction was higher than any other that I saw. The prediction came with the caveat that if things came together, the Gaels could do even better. Well, things came together, and Iona's program is above average again, rising from a 2-28 finish in the 2006-07 season. Since then, Iona has jumped up 237 places in the RPI. The improvement over that time span is the best in NCAA Division I for teams that have lowered their RPI in each of the last three seasons.
The Gaels have accomplished it despite considerable new parts of late, including four true freshmen and two red-shirt frosh. Sophomore Scott Machado has made a noticeable improvement at the point over a strong freshman year. Once his own offensive game improves, he'll be among the league's elite players. The team has real quality wins over Providence and William & Mary, and has a 12-3 record over its past 15 games.
HOW IONA CAN WIN THE TOURNAMENT: It probably needs to see someone other than Siena in the championship game. The Saints have pretty much dominated the two regular-season meetings (73-60 at Iona, 88-68 in Albany). But, the Gaels could reasonably get a chance to try again. It beat Niagara, its first-round opponent, in both regular-season games. After that, it probably gets Fairfield in the semifinals, which shapes up as one of the most-intriguing contests of the event. The Gaels need to continue playing hard-nosed defense (it allows just 61.8 points per game, second best in the MAAC) and to make a few more shots if it plays Siena again.
WHY IONA WON'T WIN THE TOURNAMENT: No. 1 is Siena's seeming mastery over the Gaels thus far; No. 2 is an unenviable route to the championship with a first-round game against something-to-prove and still-talented Niagara and the potential of a second-round game with Fairfield, that recorded a 69-53 victory over the Gaels on Friday. Iona probably doesn't have enough firepower on offense to win three straight games in this event.
PREDICTION: I'm not certain Iona gets past Niagara in the quarterfinals.. Unless it can slow the Purple Eagles' up-tempo offense, it could be one and done for the Gaels.
WHAT'S NEXT? There is still much at stake for Iona this weekend. Its decent RPI puts it in contention for NIT consideration. The guess here, though, is that it needs to advance to the championship game to keep its NIT aspirations strong. Beyond this season, there is much to be positive about. The only two seniors on the roster are reserves. This year's success is just the start for the Gaels, who figure to be one of the top two teams in the MAAC next season.
Up now, Iona.
No. 3 seed Iona (12-6 in MAAC play, 21-9 overall)
RPI (82)
SEASON ANALYSIS: Your blogger, as far back as August, picked Iona to finish sixth in this years standings and that prediction was higher than any other that I saw. The prediction came with the caveat that if things came together, the Gaels could do even better. Well, things came together, and Iona's program is above average again, rising from a 2-28 finish in the 2006-07 season. Since then, Iona has jumped up 237 places in the RPI. The improvement over that time span is the best in NCAA Division I for teams that have lowered their RPI in each of the last three seasons.
The Gaels have accomplished it despite considerable new parts of late, including four true freshmen and two red-shirt frosh. Sophomore Scott Machado has made a noticeable improvement at the point over a strong freshman year. Once his own offensive game improves, he'll be among the league's elite players. The team has real quality wins over Providence and William & Mary, and has a 12-3 record over its past 15 games.
HOW IONA CAN WIN THE TOURNAMENT: It probably needs to see someone other than Siena in the championship game. The Saints have pretty much dominated the two regular-season meetings (73-60 at Iona, 88-68 in Albany). But, the Gaels could reasonably get a chance to try again. It beat Niagara, its first-round opponent, in both regular-season games. After that, it probably gets Fairfield in the semifinals, which shapes up as one of the most-intriguing contests of the event. The Gaels need to continue playing hard-nosed defense (it allows just 61.8 points per game, second best in the MAAC) and to make a few more shots if it plays Siena again.
WHY IONA WON'T WIN THE TOURNAMENT: No. 1 is Siena's seeming mastery over the Gaels thus far; No. 2 is an unenviable route to the championship with a first-round game against something-to-prove and still-talented Niagara and the potential of a second-round game with Fairfield, that recorded a 69-53 victory over the Gaels on Friday. Iona probably doesn't have enough firepower on offense to win three straight games in this event.
PREDICTION: I'm not certain Iona gets past Niagara in the quarterfinals.. Unless it can slow the Purple Eagles' up-tempo offense, it could be one and done for the Gaels.
WHAT'S NEXT? There is still much at stake for Iona this weekend. Its decent RPI puts it in contention for NIT consideration. The guess here, though, is that it needs to advance to the championship game to keep its NIT aspirations strong. Beyond this season, there is much to be positive about. The only two seniors on the roster are reserves. This year's success is just the start for the Gaels, who figure to be one of the top two teams in the MAAC next season.
No. 2 Fairfileld Could Pose a Challenge
Here's the next in the series of the analysis of men's teams as they prepare for the MAAC tournament, a look at No. 2 Fairfield.
FAIRFIELD (13-5 in MAAC play, 20-9 overall).
RPI: No. 97
SEASON ANALYSIS: Anyone who saw this coming, considering two expected front-court starters, Greg Nero and Warren Edney, were lost for the season with preseason injuries, had a high-quality crystal ball. And, anyone who saw the Stags' success continuing after the mid-season loss of talented swingman Yorel Hawkins ... well, the likelihood is that no one expected this.
The hallmarks of coach Ed Cooley's tenure at Fairfield, though, are that his team works hard and overachieves. And this season has been more of the same. Despite the personnel losses, the cupboard wasn't totally bare. Anthony Johnson, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound inside force, has been one of the MAAC's top post players. And, freshman guard Derek Needham stepped in and played like something other than a freshman.
The 20 victories thus far have given the program its first 20-win season since 1995-96. All in all, a very successful ... and unexpected ... result.
HOW FAIRFIELD CAN WIN THE TOURNAMENT: With a continuation of its play thus far. Johnson has had back-to-back monster games (including a 24-point, 23-rebound effort vs. Niagara on Sunday). Teams can't single-guard Johnson, which leaves room for Needham to get off open shots. Needham is one of just four freshmen in MAAC history to average at least 15 points per game. It also has a serviceable big man in Ryan Olander and off-the-bench offense from 6-8 long-range shooter Mike Evanovich. Sophomore guard Sean Crawford, who had 25 points Sunday vs. Niagara, is also emerging Freshmen forward Shimeek Johnson and guard Colin Nickerson also look ready to contribute on this stage.
Also, the Stags come in with a small dose of confidence about their ability to play against Siena at the Times Union Center. Their in-season appearance resulted in a two-point (69-67) loss to the Saints, although Fairfield never had a late-game possession to either tie the game or take the lead. Still, it played Siena as well here as anyone.
WHY FAIRFIELD WON'T WIN: The 20 victories are nice, but other than an early season loss at Maryland the non-league opponents have all been mostly mediocre mid-majors. Also, the Stags rely heavily on young players, which isn't always a good thing come tournament time. There just isn't enough veteran talent here to expect Fairfield to beat Siena, if both teams get to the championship game.
PREDICTION: The Stags could easily lose in the semifinals (to either Iona or Niagara), but will likely advance to the championship contest before losing.
WHAT'S NEXT?: If Fairfield does get to the championship game, it clearly establishes itself as the MAAC team to be considered for an NIT berth, although its current RPI clearly has it on the proverbial bubble. If it loses before the championship game, then there won't be any NIT.
Beyond that ... if Nero, Edney and Hawkins all come back healthy next season, then Fairfield is the early favorite to win the 2010-11 regular-season championship.
FAIRFIELD (13-5 in MAAC play, 20-9 overall).
RPI: No. 97
SEASON ANALYSIS: Anyone who saw this coming, considering two expected front-court starters, Greg Nero and Warren Edney, were lost for the season with preseason injuries, had a high-quality crystal ball. And, anyone who saw the Stags' success continuing after the mid-season loss of talented swingman Yorel Hawkins ... well, the likelihood is that no one expected this.
The hallmarks of coach Ed Cooley's tenure at Fairfield, though, are that his team works hard and overachieves. And this season has been more of the same. Despite the personnel losses, the cupboard wasn't totally bare. Anthony Johnson, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound inside force, has been one of the MAAC's top post players. And, freshman guard Derek Needham stepped in and played like something other than a freshman.
The 20 victories thus far have given the program its first 20-win season since 1995-96. All in all, a very successful ... and unexpected ... result.
HOW FAIRFIELD CAN WIN THE TOURNAMENT: With a continuation of its play thus far. Johnson has had back-to-back monster games (including a 24-point, 23-rebound effort vs. Niagara on Sunday). Teams can't single-guard Johnson, which leaves room for Needham to get off open shots. Needham is one of just four freshmen in MAAC history to average at least 15 points per game. It also has a serviceable big man in Ryan Olander and off-the-bench offense from 6-8 long-range shooter Mike Evanovich. Sophomore guard Sean Crawford, who had 25 points Sunday vs. Niagara, is also emerging Freshmen forward Shimeek Johnson and guard Colin Nickerson also look ready to contribute on this stage.
Also, the Stags come in with a small dose of confidence about their ability to play against Siena at the Times Union Center. Their in-season appearance resulted in a two-point (69-67) loss to the Saints, although Fairfield never had a late-game possession to either tie the game or take the lead. Still, it played Siena as well here as anyone.
WHY FAIRFIELD WON'T WIN: The 20 victories are nice, but other than an early season loss at Maryland the non-league opponents have all been mostly mediocre mid-majors. Also, the Stags rely heavily on young players, which isn't always a good thing come tournament time. There just isn't enough veteran talent here to expect Fairfield to beat Siena, if both teams get to the championship game.
PREDICTION: The Stags could easily lose in the semifinals (to either Iona or Niagara), but will likely advance to the championship contest before losing.
WHAT'S NEXT?: If Fairfield does get to the championship game, it clearly establishes itself as the MAAC team to be considered for an NIT berth, although its current RPI clearly has it on the proverbial bubble. If it loses before the championship game, then there won't be any NIT.
Beyond that ... if Nero, Edney and Hawkins all come back healthy next season, then Fairfield is the early favorite to win the 2010-11 regular-season championship.
No. 1 Seed Siena The Clear-cut Favorite
Over the next few days we'll be doing a team-by-team analysis of the MAAC men's post-season tournament as well as a more-general review of the women's event.
We'll do it in order off seeding position, starting with top-seeded Siena.
SIENA (17-1 MAAC record, 24-6 overall).
RPI RANKING (as of Monday morning): 40 of 347 Division I teams.
SEASON ANALYSIS: Pretty much as any reasonable prognosticator expected (the top 20 preseason predictions made by some national media outlets were ludicrous). The Saints beat every team they were supposed to beat, except Niagara. Still, Siena set a conference record for most victories in a season (La Salle's unbeaten seasons were 16-0 and 14-0). Siena now benefits from an 18-game league season. All five of its other losses came against national-caliber teams (Georgia Tech, Temple, Northern Iowa, Butler and St. John's), and all away from home.
WHY SIENA WILL WIN THE TOURNAMENT: Best talent, by far. It has the conference's best player at four of the five positions (Alex Franklin, Ryan Rossiter, Ronald Moore and Edwin Ubiles) and the fifth starter (Clarence Jackson) is among the top 3 or 4 off-guards in the league.
The tournament is being played on Siena's Times Union Center home court, where the Saints have a 35-game unbeaten streak.
Plus, this is a veteran team ... three seniors and two juniors ... who have considerable experience playing together and a keen knowledge of how to win games in just about any fashion.
WHY SIENA WON'T WIN: Its only real weakness is depth. Siena coach Fran McCaffery has gone the entire second half of five games this season without making a single substitution. That said, his best reserve player, Kyle Downey, has returned from a broken foot and will help. And, freshman O.D. Anisoke has developed as the year has progressed, so the depth concerns aren't as pronounced as they have been for much of the year.
PREDICTION: Siena will win the tournament.
WHAT'S NEXT: Siena is being predicted to get a No. 13 seeding position in a 16-team NCAA bracket by most "bracketologists." Your blogger believes the Saints could also get a No. 12 seed.
If Siena doesn't win, though, it is all but certain to head to the NIT (by virtue of an automatic invitation via its regular-season conference championship). A first-round game against a play-in round winner will drop Siena a few spots in the RPI, as would a tournament loss. If Siena does lose in this event, the likelihood is that its RPI would drop to the mid-50's, if not lower, and that probably won't cut it with the NCAA selection committee that determines the at-large teams.
We'll do it in order off seeding position, starting with top-seeded Siena.
SIENA (17-1 MAAC record, 24-6 overall).
RPI RANKING (as of Monday morning): 40 of 347 Division I teams.
SEASON ANALYSIS: Pretty much as any reasonable prognosticator expected (the top 20 preseason predictions made by some national media outlets were ludicrous). The Saints beat every team they were supposed to beat, except Niagara. Still, Siena set a conference record for most victories in a season (La Salle's unbeaten seasons were 16-0 and 14-0). Siena now benefits from an 18-game league season. All five of its other losses came against national-caliber teams (Georgia Tech, Temple, Northern Iowa, Butler and St. John's), and all away from home.
WHY SIENA WILL WIN THE TOURNAMENT: Best talent, by far. It has the conference's best player at four of the five positions (Alex Franklin, Ryan Rossiter, Ronald Moore and Edwin Ubiles) and the fifth starter (Clarence Jackson) is among the top 3 or 4 off-guards in the league.
The tournament is being played on Siena's Times Union Center home court, where the Saints have a 35-game unbeaten streak.
Plus, this is a veteran team ... three seniors and two juniors ... who have considerable experience playing together and a keen knowledge of how to win games in just about any fashion.
WHY SIENA WON'T WIN: Its only real weakness is depth. Siena coach Fran McCaffery has gone the entire second half of five games this season without making a single substitution. That said, his best reserve player, Kyle Downey, has returned from a broken foot and will help. And, freshman O.D. Anisoke has developed as the year has progressed, so the depth concerns aren't as pronounced as they have been for much of the year.
PREDICTION: Siena will win the tournament.
WHAT'S NEXT: Siena is being predicted to get a No. 13 seeding position in a 16-team NCAA bracket by most "bracketologists." Your blogger believes the Saints could also get a No. 12 seed.
If Siena doesn't win, though, it is all but certain to head to the NIT (by virtue of an automatic invitation via its regular-season conference championship). A first-round game against a play-in round winner will drop Siena a few spots in the RPI, as would a tournament loss. If Siena does lose in this event, the likelihood is that its RPI would drop to the mid-50's, if not lower, and that probably won't cut it with the NCAA selection committee that determines the at-large teams.
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